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职业迁徙
个人简介
I am the federal lead for PSD's "Attribution and Predictability Assessments" team. Additionally, I perform, coordinate, and lead R&D to improve NOAA's probabilistic weather forecasts on time scales of days to several weeks. The probabilistic forecasts are based on ensembles of weather simulations using different initial conditions and methods for simulating imperfections in the forecast model. I also am involved in the "post-processing" of ensembles of forecasts, making corrections to the real-time forecasts based on discrepancies noted between past forecasts and observations or analyses. My team and I develop these research methods, demonstrate their suitability for operational use, and then work with colleagues in the National Weather Service to adapt them for daily use by forecasters and the public. We document our work in the form of peer-reviewed journal articles, presentations, white papers, book chapters, and so forth.
Research Interests
Ensemble prediction methods
Ensemble-based data assimilation
Statistical post-processing
Forecast verification
研究兴趣
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Jerald A. Brotzge, Don Berchoff, DaNa L. Carlis,Frederick H. Carr,Rachel Hogan Carr,Jordan J. Gerth, Brian D. Gross,Thomas M. Hamill,Sue Ellen Haupt, Neil Jacobs,Amy McGovern,David J. Stensrud,
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETYno. 3 (2023): E698-E705
JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGYno. 6 (2022): 991-1005
user-61447a76e55422cecdaf7d19(2022)
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Weather and Forecastingno. 2 (2022): 357-370
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