Predictive Factors Correlated with Successful Early Endoscopic Removal of Pancreaticolithiasis in Chronic Pancreatitis after Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy

Background: The treatment of chronic pancreatitis (CP) and symptomatic pancreatic duct (PD) calculi often involves techniques like endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL), or a combination of both. However, identifying predictive factors for the successful removal of these calculi remains variable. This study aimed to determine the factors predicting successful ESWL and endoscopic removal in CP and PD calculi patients. Methods: We examined data from CP patients who underwent complete PD calculi removal via ESWL combined with ERCP between July 2012 and 2022, and assessed baseline characteristics, imaging findings, and treatment details. Patients were categorized into early- and late-endoscopic complete removal groups (EER and LER groups, respectively). Results: Of the 27 patients analyzed, 74.1% were male with an average age of 44 +/- 9.6 years. EER was achieved in 74% of the patients. Patients in the EER group exhibited smaller PD calculi diameter (8.5 vs. 19 mm, p = 0.012) and lower calculus density (964.6 vs. 1313.3 HU, p = 0.041) compared to the LER group. Notably, PD stricture and the rate of PD stent insertion were not different between the groups. A calculus density threshold of 1300 HU on non-contrast CT demonstrated 71% sensitivity and 80% specificity in predicting EER. Conclusions: Smaller and low-density PD calculi may serve as predictors for successful EER, potentially aiding in the management of CP patients with PD calculi.