Gas-induced Perturbations on the Gravitational Wave In-Spiral of Live Post-Newtonian LISA Massive Black Hole Binaries

We investigate the effect of dynamically coupling gas torques with gravitational wave (GW) emission during the orbital evolution of an equal-mass massive black hole binary (MBHB). We perform hydrodynamical simulations of eccentric MBHBs with total mass M=10^6 M_⊙ embedded in a prograde locally isothermal circumbinary disk (CBD). We evolve the binary from 53 to 30 Schwarzschild radii separations using up to 2.5 post-Newtonian (PN) corrections to the binary dynamics, which allow us to follow the GW-driven in-spiral. For the first time, we report the measurement of gas torques onto a live binary a few years before the merger, with and without concurrent GW radiation. We also identify and measure a novel GW-gas coupling term in the in-spiral rate that makes gas effects an order of magnitude stronger than the gas-only contribution. We show that the evolution rate (ȧ) of the MBHB can be neatly expressed as the sum of the GW rate (ȧ_ GW), the pure gas-driven rate (ȧ_ gas), and their cross-term ∝ȧ_ GWȧ_ gas. The source-frame gas-induced dephasing in the GW waveform is equivalent to losing ∼0.5 GW cycles over the expected ∼1700 cycles in a vacuum, which LISA should detect at redshift z=1. We also propose a phenomenological model that captures the essence of simulations and can be used to perform Bayesian inference. Our results show how GWs alone can be used to probe the astrophysical properties of CBDs and have important implications on multi-messenger strategies aimed at studying the environments of MBHBs.