Small-scale Geographic Differences in Multiple-Driver Environmental Variability Can Modulate Contrasting Phenotypic Plasticity Despite High Levels of Gene Flow

Climate change is altering not only the mean conditions of marine environments, but also their temporal variability and predictability. As these alterations are not uniform across seascapes, their biological effects are expected to accentuate intra-specific differences in the adaptive capacity (e.g., plasticity and evolutionary potential) of natural populations. To test this theoretical framework, we assessed the phenotypic and genetic profiles of mussel from three study sites across a multi-driver heterogeneous environmental mosaic in Chilean Patagonia. Our study reveals that temporal variability, predictability, and exposure to extreme events (low pH/low salinity), collectively, can modulate the plasticity and optimal conditions of mussels. Despite these phenotypic differences, we observed low genetic differentiation, likely resulting from significant gene flow induced by aquaculture, ultimately diminishing variation among individuals from different geographic areas. Our findings underscore how variability and predictability are essential factors shaping phenotypic diversity, even at small spatial scales. Balancing these factors could enhance species resilience and ecological success, crucial for biodiversity conservation amidst climate change.