Landscape Change and Fire Risk in the Croatian Dinaric Karst: Looking Back and Moving Forward

AbstractIn recent decades, there has been a strong trend of abandonment of traditional land uses in the Mediterranean region, leading to changes in vegetation cover and an increase in the risk of wildfires. One of the areas where anthropogenic changes in land cover have been especially prominent is the Croatian Dinaric Karst. Focusing on the last two centuries, this research contributes to the understanding of historical links between socio-economic, demographic and landscape changes that occurred in three main Dinaric socio-environmental zones (the hinterland, the littoral and the islands) and explores how they have shaped the development of fire-prone landscapes in the study region. Through a mixed-method approach, different data sources are utilised, including the analysis of existing literature, archival sources, recent comparative forestry, satellite and fieldwork data. Finally, the paper also focuses on possible future changes in the context of three development scenarios, aiming to explore how to manage and protect these landscapes at a time when both population and climate are quickly changing.