Immune-based Machine Learning Prediction of Diagnosis and Illness State in Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder

Background Schizophrenia and bipolar disorder frequently face significant delay in diagnosis, leading to being missed or misdiagnosed in early stages. Both disorders have also been associated with trait and state immune abnormalities. Recent machine learning-based studies have shown encouraging results using diagnostic biomarkers in predictive models, but few have focused on immune-based markers. Our main objective was to develop supervised machine learning models to predict diagnosis and illness state in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder using only a panel of peripheral kynurenine metabolites and cytokines. Methods The cross-sectional I-GIVE cohort included hospitalized acute bipolar patients (n = 205), stable bipolar outpatients (n = 116), hospitalized acute schizophrenia patients (n = 111), stable schizophrenia outpatients (n = 75) and healthy controls (n = 185). Serum kynurenine metabolites, namely tryptophan (TRP), kynurenine (KYN), kynurenic acid (KA), quinaldic acid (QUINA), xanthurenic acid (XA), quinolinic acid (QUINO) and picolinic acid (PICO) were quantified using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), while V-plex Human Cytokine Assays were used to measure cytokines (interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-8, IL-17, IL-12/IL23-P40, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-ɑ), interferon-gamma (IFN-γ)). Supervised machine learning models were performed using JMP Pro 17.0.0. We compared a primary analysis using nested cross-validation to a split set as sensitivity analysis. Post-hoc, we re-ran the models using only the significant features to obtain the key markers. Results The models yielded a good Area Under the Curve (AUC) (0.804, Positive Prediction Value (PPV) = 86.95; Negative Prediction Value (NPV) = 54.61) for distinguishing all patients from controls. This implies that a positive test is highly accurate in identifying the patients, but a negative test is inconclusive. Both schizophrenia patients and bipolar patients could each be separated from controls with a good accuracy (SCZ AUC 0.824; BD AUC 0.802). Overall, increased levels of IL-6, TNF-ɑ and PICO and decreased levels of IFN-γ and QUINO were predictive for an individual being classified as a patient. Classification of acute versus stable patients reached a fair AUC of 0.713. The differentiation between schizophrenia and bipolar disorder yielded a poor AUC of 0.627. Conclusions This study highlights the potential of using immune-based measures to build predictive classification models in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, with IL-6, TNF-ɑ, IFN-γ, QUINO and PICO as key candidates. While machine learning models successfully distinguished schizophrenia and bipolar disorder from controls, the challenges in differentiating schizophrenic from bipolar patients likely reflect shared immunological pathways by the both disorders and confounding by a larger state-specific effect. Larger multi-centric studies and multi-domain models are needed to enhance reliability and translation into clinic.