2021 Heatwave over Western North America: Structural Uncertainty and Internal Variability in GCM Projections of Humidex and Temperature Extremes

The 2021 heatwave over Western North America (WNA) led to record-breaking air temperatures and human-perceived heat stress (humidex) values. The event was accompanied by drier conditions driven by prolonged atmospheric blocking. During the heatwave, the maximum 6-day means of humidex and temperature (HX-6 and TX-6) exhibited larger anomalies (6.70 and 5.57 degrees C) compared to the 95th percentiles (HX95 and TX95) (4.12 and 3.73 degrees C), relative to 1981-2021 extended summer (June-September) averages. Extreme indices of humidex show faster and larger increases than those of temperature, reflecting the nonlinear positive relationship between humidex and temperature. Future projections from a multi-model ensemble of 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) clearly show an increase in humidex and temperature extremes, especially under intermediate and high emissions scenarios. Humidex indices (HX-6 and HX95) show faster and larger increases than temperature indices (TX-6 and TX95) for the same future years and global warming levels. Controlling for differences in GCM climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing yields robust projections at various global warming levels, reducing the ranges of projected changes from the multi-model ensemble. At 3.0 degrees C global warming from pre-industrial, the multi-model ensemble projects occurrences of HX-6, TX-6, HX95, and TX95 over WNA that exceed 2021 levels to occur every 3.9, 1.7, 1.4, and 2.2 years, respectively, increasing to almost annually at 4.0 degrees C. In 2021 summer, Western North America (WNA) experienced an unprecedented heatwave, breaking air temperature and human-perceived heat stress (humidex) records despite lower humidity due to prolonged atmospheric blocking. During the heatwave, consecutive 6-day means of heat stress (HX-6) and temperature (TX-6) showed larger anomalies (6.70 and 5.57 degrees C) compared to the 95th percentiles (HX95 and TX95) (4.12 and 3.73 degrees C) over the region, relative to their averages over the 1981-2010 summer period (June-September). Heat stress increased faster and more significantly than air temperature due to their nonlinear relationship. Future projections from 19 climate models reveal clear increases in heat stress and temperature, especially under intermediate and high emission scenarios. Heat stress indices show larger and faster increases than temperature indices at the same future years and global warming levels. Accounting for uncertainty related to climate model sensitivity enhances projection reliability. At 3.0 degrees C global warming from pre-industrial levels, 2021-level events over WNA are projected to occur every few years, becoming an almost annual occurrence at 4.0 degrees C. The study underscores the critical need for robust projections using multi-model ensembles. Unprecedented 2021 summer heatwave over Western North America resulted in record-breaking humidex and air temperature extremes Larger increases in humidex than temperature, exceeding their 2021 levels, under intermediate and high emissions scenarios Robust projections of multi-model ensemble, mitigating climate sensitivity uncertainty of GCMs response to greenhouse gas emissions