Modelling non-radially propagating coronal mass ejections and forecasting the time of their arrival at Earth
arxiv(2024)
摘要
We present the study of two solar eruptive events observed on December 7 2020
and October 28 2021.Both events were associated with full halo CMEs and
flares.These events were chosen because they show a strong non-radial direction
of propagation in the low corona and their main propagation direction is not
fully aligned with the Sun-Earth line.This characteristic makes them suitable
for our study, which aims to inspect how the non-radial direction of
propagation in the low corona affects the time of CMEs' arrival at Earth.We
reconstructed the CMEs using coronagraph observations and modelled them with
EUHFORIA and the cone model for CMEs.To compare the accuracy of forecasting the
CME arrival time at Earth obtained from different methods, we also used
so-called typeII bursts, radio signatures of associated shocks, to find the
velocities of the CME-driven shocks and forecast the time of their arrival at
Earth.We also estimated the CME arrival time using the 2D CME velocity.Our
results show that the lowest accuracy of estimated CME Earth arrival times is
found when the 2D CME velocity is used.The velocity of the typeII radio bursts
provides better, but still not very accurate, results.Employing, as an input to
EUHFORIA, the CME parameters obtained from the GCS fittings at consequently
increasing heights, results in a strongly improved accuracy of the modelled CME
and shock arrival time Delta t changes from 14h to 10min for the first event,
and from 12h to 30min for the second one.This improvement shows that when we
increased the heights of the GCS reconstruction we accounted for the change in
the propagation direction of the studied CMEs, which allowed us to accurately
model the CME flank encounter at Earth. Our results show the great importance
of the change in the direction of propagation of the CME in the low corona when
modelling CMEs and estimating the time of their arrival at Earth.
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