Comparison of Juvenile Pacific Salmon Abundance, Distribution, and Body Condition Between Western and Eastern Bering Sea Using Spatiotemporal Models

Recent changes in climate have had generally negative impacts on salmon stocks in the eastern and positive effects in the western Bering Sea (WBS). Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) salmon stocks have periodically experienced reduced productivity, size, and survival, whereas salmon stocks in the western Bering Sea (WBS) have tended to be more stable, with some stocks increasing in abundance. This difference could be partially attributed to the different habitats that juvenile salmon occupy during their first marine year, which often determines recruitment. Here, we used salmon surveys in the EBS and WBS to compare the status of juveniles in these two large marine ecosystems. We applied spatio-temporal vector autoregressive spatio-temporal (VAST) models to adjust for differences in timing, vessels and trawl gear used, and to compare the relative abundance and body condition indices (length, weight, and Fulton's condition factor) of three juvenile salmon species pink, chum and sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, O. keta, and O.nerka respectively) between the WBS and EBS from 2002 to 2022. Juvenile salmon in WBS exhibited a consistent trend of larger size and higher Fulton's condition factor, with greater abundance compared to EBS in even years. A clear even-odd year pattern, which is believed to be driven by pink salmon, occurred in all species’ relative abundance and body condition in the WBS, with a limited impact of interannual temperature changes. Conversely, temperature had a significant impact on EBS salmon, with much of the variation in relative abundance and body condition occurring between warm and cold periods, and even/odd patterns were found only in pink salmon relative abundance and body condition. We detected different WBS-EBS migration patterns, with EBS juveniles dispersing from nearshore habitats earlier than WBS juveniles but migrating offshore later that is connected to bathymetry and the broad shelf in the EBS.