Diverging Phenology of American Lobster (homarus Americanus) Larvae and Their Zooplankton Prey in a Warming Ocean

We build on previous research describing correlative links between changes in the abundance of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, a foundational zooplankton species of the pelagic food web, and diminishing recruitment of young-of-year American lobster (Homarus americanus) to benthic nurseries in the Gulf of Maine. Using parallel 31-year time series of lobster larvae and zooplankton collected on the New Hampshire coast between 1988 and 2018, we investigated how changes in phenology of stage I larval lobster and their putative copepod prey, C. finmarchicus, affect their temporal overlap and potential to interact during the larval season. We found that over the time series both the lobster egg hatch and first appearance of larvae began earlier in the season, a trend significantly correlated with ocean warming. The last appearance of larvae in late summer has been delayed, however, thereby extending the larval season. Even with the longer larval lobster season, the C. finmarchicus season has increasingly been ending before the peak abundance of stage I lobster larvae. The net effect is a widening mismatch in phenology of the two species, an outcome consistent with the hypothesis that changes in abundance and phenology of C. finmarchicus have contributed to recent declines in lobster recruitment.