Trajectory of Mid-Arm Subcutaneous Fat, Muscle Mass Predicts Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients Independent of Body Mass Index

Although decreasing body mass index (BMI) is associated with higher mortality risk in patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD), BMI neither differentiates muscle and fat mass nor provides information about the variations of fat distribution. It remains unclear whether changes over time in fat and muscle mass are associated with mortality. We examined the prognostic significance of trajectory in the triceps skinfold (TSF) thickness and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC). In this multicenter prospective cohort study, 972 outpatients (mean age, 54.5 years; 55.3% men) undergoing maintenance HD at 22 treatment centers were included. We calculated the relative change in TSF and MUAC over a 1-year period. The outcome was all-cause mortality. Kaplan–Meier, Cox proportional hazard analyses, restricted cubic splines, and Fine and Gray sub-distribution hazards models were performed to examine whether TSF and MUAC trajectories were associated with all-cause mortality. During follow-up (median, 48.0 months), 206 (21.2%) HD patients died. Compared with the lowest trajectory group, the highest trajectories of TSF and MUAC were independently associated with lower risk for all-cause mortality (HR = 0.405, 95% CI 0.257–0.640; HR = 0.537; 95% CI 0.345–0.837; respectively), even adjusting for BMI trajectory. Increasing TSF and MUAC over time, measured as continuous variables and expressed per 1-standard deviation decrease, were associated with a 55.7% (HR = 0.443, 95% CI 0.302–0.649), and 97.8% (HR = 0.022, 95% CI 0.005–0.102) decreased risk of all-cause mortality. Reduction of TSF and MUAC are independently associated with lower all-cause mortality, independent of change in BMI. Our study revealed that the trajectory of TSF thickness and MUAC provides additional prognostic information to the BMI trajectory in HD patients.