Density and Abundance Estimates of Cetaceans in the Black Sea Through Aerial Surveys (Asi/cenobs)

IntroductionPopulation abundance is amongst the most basic and crucial parameters for the assessment of conservation status of any species. Three species of odontocetes, all represented by local subspecies, inhabit the Black Sea: the Black Sea common dolphin Delphinus delphis ponticus, the Black Sea bottlenose dolphin Tursiops truncatus ponticus, and the Black Sea harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena relicta. Their populations are threatened by multiple factors, including overfishing of their prey, bycatch, pollution and epizootics. Despite this, there are no basinwide estimates for any cetacean species in the Black Sea.MethodsIn 2019, a systematic study was carried out under the EU CeNoBS project. Six strata were designed in the waters of Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Türkiye and Ukraine, covering most of territorial and offshore waters, which were surveyed between June 19 and July 4. A line transect distance sampling approach was used, following predefined transects within each stratum, achieving a 5% coverage of the surveyed area. A total of 7,344 kilometres of transects were surveyed recording a total of 1,744 cetacean sightings. Design-based abundance estimates were obtained using a Multiple Covariate Distance Sampling (MCDS) approach. Model-based abundance estimates were also derived using a Generalized Additive Models (GAM) approach, linking species sightings with a number of environmental covariates (e.g., bathymetric features, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a) over a grid of 10x10 km.Results and discussionThe uncorrected (for perception and availability bias) estimates obtained through the model-based analysis were 108,283 (CV=0.07) common dolphins, 22,720 (CV=0.15) bottlenose dolphins and 93,808 (CV=0.06) harbour porpoises. These aerial surveys yielded the first insights on overall abundance, density and distribution, providing current regional baseline values and density maps for all three cetacean species of the Black Sea during the summer months, to be used for the elaboration of effective conservation measures and to address national and international requirements.