Abstract 11330: Association of Left Ventricular Wall Stress and Incident Heart Failure in Elderly Community Dwelling Individuals

Introduction: Greater left ventricular (LV) wall stress is associated with adverse outcomes among patients with prevalent heart failure (HF). Less is known about the association between LV wall stress and risk of incident HF in community dwelling individuals. Methods: Using data from the NHLBI Biologic Specimen and Data Repository Information Coordinating Center, we studied 4,601 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study without prevalent HF who underwent echocardiography at visit 5 (2011-2013). LV end systolic and diastolic wall stress (LVESWS, LVEDWS) were calculated from chamber and wall thickness measures, E/e’ as a surrogate for LV end diastolic pressure, and systemic blood pressure. Incident HF was assessed by cohort surveillance for hospitalized HF through December 31, 2016. The relationship between LVESWS and LVEDWS was examined by Spearman rank correlation. The association between wall stress and risk of incident HF was tested in Cox regression adjusted for demographics, traditional CV risk factors, prevalent CAD and atrial fibrillation, as well as creatinine, NT-proBNP, troponin, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, LV ejection fraction, and LV mass. Results: The cohort was elderly (median age 75 years), predominantly female (58%), with 18% of individuals identifying as black. Median LVESWS and LVEDWS were 48.8 (IQR: 39.3, 60.1) and 18.9 (IQR: 15.8, 22.5) kdynes/cm2, respectively. LVESWS and LVEDWS were modestly correlated (rho = 0.30, p <0.001). Over a median follow-up of 4.6 years, 156 individuals developed incident HF. In multivariable Cox regression mutually adjusted for LVEDWS and LVESWS, each 1-unit increase in LVEDWS significantly associated with an increased risk of incident HF (HR: 1.03; 95% CI 1.01 - 1.06) (Figure), while LVESWS did not (HR: 1.00; 95% CI 0.99-1.01). Conclusions: Among community dwelling elderly individuals, greater non-invasively measured LVEDWS is associated with an increased risk for incident HF.