Evaluating alternatives to improve drinking water supply within a complex and uncertain human-environment system: case of the Port-au-Prince Metropolitan Region

Improving decision making in urban water supply systems under a wide range of changing human-environmental scenarios represents a challenging issue, especially when there is a high level of uncertainty and the available information is limited or scarce. To address this concern, the present study applied a decision aiding process to evaluate long-term planning solutions for the Port-au Prince Metropolitan Region's water supply in Haiti, which is recognized for having a low coverage of water services and great lack of monitoring data. The methodological framework assessed pre-specified alternatives to face uncertain future conditions, with the main emphasis of being aware of how these uncertainties can be framed in the water management practices. To discover the most robust management solutions, a tradeoff analysis and multi-objective optimization allowed to explore the performance of alternatives across many future states of the world and multiple criteria. The results highlighted that human factors associated with the increase of per-capita water use and population growth posed a greater risk on water supply coverage than climatic factors. In addition, the decision support can offer a comprehensive representation of potential supply/demand futures, and provides decision-makers with the opportunity to discuss a posteriori the most appropriate water supply solution under an extensive variety of information with severe uncertainty.