Evaluating Firearm Violence after New Jersey's Cash Bail Reform.

Importance Reducing the pretrial detention population has been a cornerstone of movements to end mass incarceration. Across many US cities, there are ongoing public debates on policies that would end pretrial detention due to the inability to afford bail, with some raising concerns that doing so would increase community violence. Objective To evaluate changes in firearm violence after New Jersey's 2017 bail reform policy that eliminated financial barriers to avoiding pretrial detention. Design, Setting, and Participants This case-control study used synthetic control methods to examine changes in firearm mortality and combined fatal and nonfatal shootings in New Jersey (2014-2019). New Jersey was chosen because it was one of the first states to systematically implement cash bail reform. Outcomes in New Jersey were compared with a weighted combination of 36 states that did not implement any kind of reform to pretrial detention during the study period. Data were analyzed from April 2023 to March 2024. Exposure Implementation of New Jersey's cash bail reform law in 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures Quarterly rates of fatal and nonfatal firearm assault injuries and firearm self-harm injuries per 100 000 people. Results Although New Jersey's pretrial detention population dramatically decreased under bail reform, the study did not find evidence of increases in overall firearm mortality (average treatment effect on the treated, -0.26 deaths per 100 000) or gun violence (average treatment effect on the treated, -0.24 deaths per 100 000), or within racialized groups during the postpolicy period. Conclusions and Relevance Incarceration and gun violence are major public health problems impacting racially and economically marginalized groups. Cash bail reform may be an important tool for reducing pretrial detention and advancing health equity without exacerbating community violence.