Population Viability Analysis Predicts Long‐term Impacts of Commercial Sooty Tern Egg Harvesting to a Large Breeding Colony on a Small Oceanic Island

The over‐exploitation of wild birds and the products derived from them can be a key threat driving changes in bird species richness and abundance. However, inadequate information on harvest levels combined with irregular population monitoring often means that the role of harvesting in population decline is difficult to quantify. Historically, the pan‐tropical Sooty Tern Onychoprion fuscatus has been subjected to extensive egg harvesting, yet the role of sustained harvesting in population change and future population viability remains unclear. In this study, we used published and new estimates of key demographic rates for a large, harvested Sooty Tern population in Seychelles, western Indian Ocean, to run a series of population viability analyses. We retrospectively assess the impact of historical levels of egg harvesting, and also predict how this population may respond under different future harvesting regimes, assuming no additional environmental change. We provide evidence that egg harvesting has played a substantial role in driving the population decline of Sooty Terns to date and demonstrate that continued harvesting will probably lead to further, possibly dramatic, declines in population size. These results indicate that recent levels of egg harvesting in Seychelles are not sustainable. We also show that the life‐history strategy of Sooty Terns, including a delayed age of first breeding, means the current 2‐year local moratorium on egg harvesting is unlikely to generate an observable population‐level response in Seychelles. Instead, we recommend that the current moratorium is extended at least beyond the age of first breeding (i.e. 5 years) to support appropriate evaluation. We additionally show that harvesting Sooty Tern eggs at much lower levels, i.e. 10% of the population size, is unlikely to reverse population decline. Therefore, long‐term egg harvesting strategies require careful evaluation to maintain a balance between the social, commercial, cultural and biodiversity significance of Sooty Terns in Seychelles.