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Ruling out Left Main Stem Stenosis by Clinical and Stress ECG Variables: the MASTER Case-Control Multicenter Study

CIRCULATION(2024)

University of Pisa | FTGM Pisa | Fondazione Toscana Gabriele Monasterio | Policlinico Agostino Gemelli | University of Messina | ASL2 Abruzzo | University of Eastern Piedmont | Medstar Health Research Institute | Istituti Clinici Scientifici S. Maugeri | UNIVERSITY OF PISA

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Abstract
Background: The ISCHEMIA trial questioned revascularization in chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) patients, but excluding subjects with left main (LM) coronary artery disease (CAD). A widely available diagnostic method excluding LMCAD would expand the implementation of an initial noninvasive strategy. Objective: Assessing the ability of excluding LMCAD through clinical and ECG stress testing (EST) variables in patients undergoing coronary angiography (CAG) for CCS. Methods: In a multicenter retrospective case-control study we evaluated CCS subjects undergoing CAG after a maximal EST. Cases were patients with angiographic ≥50% LM stenosis or ≥70% stenoses of both proximal left anterior descending and proximal circumflex arteries; we matched them with similar patients without LMCAD ( Controls) in a 1:3 ratio. Models were internally validated through logistic regressions. Results: 219 Cases were matched with 554 Controls . The c-statistic was 0.80 (optimism-adjusted: 0.73). Assuming LMCAD prevalence of 5% and a misclassification cost ratio of 1:100 (ratio of the cost of performing CAG in a subject without LMCAD to the cost of not performing CAG in a patient with LMCAD), the negative predictive value was 98.6%, correctly classifying 84.5% of Cases . CAG could be spared in 57.0% of subjects, missing one LMCAD diagnosis every 70 CAGs spared in patients without LMCAD ( Figure ). Conclusions: Among patients with CCS, LMCAD can be predicted with acceptable diagnostic accuracy and a very high negative predictive value through a model based on clinical and EST parameters, allowing an initial noninvasive management of most patients able to perform an EST, reducing the costs of routine coronary imaging. Such results should enlarge the applicability of the ISCHEMIA results when coronary computed tomography angiography, used in ISCHEMIA, is not available, limiting the referral to invasive CAG.
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要点】:研究提出了一种基于临床和心电图压力测试变量排除左主冠状动脉疾病的新方法,具有较高的诊断准确性和阴性预测值,有助于降低冠脉造影的使用,节约医疗成本。

方法】:通过多中心回顾性病例对照研究,对接受冠脉造影的慢性冠脉综合征患者进行评估,采用逻辑回归模型对临床和心电图压力测试变量进行分析。

实验】:研究中,219例LMCAD患者与554例非LMCAD患者进行了匹配,使用逻辑回归模型进行内部验证,模型判别力(c-统计量)为0.80,调整后为0.73,在假设LMCAD患病率为5%的情况下,阴性预测值为98.6%,能够正确分类84.5%的病例。通过该模型,可以避免对57.0%的患者进行冠脉造影,每避免70次不必要的冠脉造影可能会漏诊一例LMCAD。