How Do Operational Meteorologists Perceive Model Performance for Elevated Convection?

Operational Meteorologists (OMs) in the Met Office have a perception that elevated convection is not well represented in kilometre-scale models, which are generally associated with an improved representation of convection. Here, we consider why there may be a problem with representing elevated convection and consider how OMs judge the model to be poor so often. Three OMs have subjectively scored and classified observed elevated convection cases over the UK from 2017 to 2020. Continental plumes (warm, moist, air coming from the near continent or Africa) account for 73% of the cases. The most frequent errors are associated with (i) location, (ii) organisation, (iii) timing and (iv) intensity of the convection. Thus, OMs perceive that the biggest problem with predicting elevated convection is constraining the location of the convective events. The location errors are particularly prevalent for events coming to the UK from the near continent. The location errors are most frequently identified for flow regimes coming from the near continent in weakly forced synoptic conditions. The identification of this problem enables the specific targeting of research into continental plumes (for UK elevated convection) but also raises questions around the role of lateral boundary conditions in the forecasts of elevated convection. Elevated convection is often associated with poor forecasts of high-impact events. To help define the problem strong engagement with operational meteorologist is needed to understand their perspectives on the errors. Subjective scores for different components of the forecast indicate that the top errors are associated with the location of the events. These errors tend to happen over the UK most frequently in continental plumes under weak-forcing regimes. image