The Problem Gambling Measure: a Revision of the Problem & Pathological Gambling Measure to Better Predict At-Risk and Chronic Gambling

Most problem gambling (PG) assessment instruments classify individuals with subthreshold levels of problem gambling symptomatology as ‘at-risk’, implying a future risk of developing more serious problems. However, this convention lacks empirical support. The present study aimed to develop an empirically supported revision of the Problem and Pathological Gambling Measure (PPGM) that (1) better assesses the risk of future gambling-related harm (GRH) and PG as well as (2) better predicts cases in which PG persists. Data from the Alberta Gambling Research Institute’s National Project Baseline and Follow-up Online Panel Surveys (n = 4676) were used to identify predictors of future GRH and PG. Five variables maximized prediction power: PPGM total score, problem perception, rated importance of gambling as a leisure activity, largest single day gambling loss, and breadth of monthly gambling involvement. A 16-point scale was produced based on the relative risk of developing GRH and PG and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses found that scores of 1, 4, and 8 best captured a gradient of risk for future GRH or PG. Regarding chronicity, a total score of 7 and higher was found to be most parsimoniously predictive of chronic PG. The revised instrument was renamed the Problem Gambling Measure (PGM).