Advanced chronic kidney disease after surgery and the contribution of acute kidney disease: a national observational cohort study

Background: Limited knowledge exists regarding long-term renal outcomes after noncardiac surgery. This study investigated the incidence of, and risk factors for, developing advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) and major adverse kidney events within 1 yr of surgery in a nationwide cohort. Methods: Adults without renal dysfunction before noncardiac surgery in Sweden were included between 2007 and 2013 in this observational multicentre cohort study. We analysed data from a national surgical database linked to several national and quality outcome registries. Associations of perioperative risk factors with advanced CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <30 ml min(-1) 1.73 m(-2)) and major adverse kidney events within 1 yr (MAKE365, comprising eGFR <30 ml min(-1) 1.73 m(-2), chronic dialysis, death) were quantified. Results: Of 237,124 patients, 1597 (0.67%) developed advanced CKD and 16,789 (7.1%) developed MAKE365. Risk factors for advanced CKD included higher ASA physical status, urological surgery, extended surgical duration, prolonged postoperative hospital stay, repeated surgery, and postoperative use of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system blockers. Advanced acute kidney disease (AKD) (eGFR <30 ml min(-1) 1.73 m(-2) within 90 postoperative days) occurred in 1661 (0.70%) patients and was associated with advanced CKD (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 44.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 38.7-51.1) and MAKE365 (hazard ratio [HR] 6.60, 95% CI 6.07-7.17). Among patients with advanced AKD after surgery 36% developed advanced CKD at 1 yr after surgery and 51% developed MAKE365. Conclusions: Advanced CKD within 1 yr after surgery is uncommon but clinically important in patients without preoperative renal dysfunction. Advanced AKD after surgery constitutes a major risk factor for advanced CKD and MAKE365.