Climate change impact on rain-fed agriculture of Northern Mexico. An analysis based on the CanESM5 model

Rain-fed agriculture (RA) is highly vulnerable to environmental factors, and in Mexico, this vulnerability has been worsened by climate change (CC). Therefore, it is crucial to assess the impact of these effects at the local level. The study's aims were: (1) to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change on RA in Northern Mexico in the near future (2021–2040), and (2) to analyze the adaptation measures employed by farmers to sustain and protect RA as a significant economic activity. The research focused on the municipalities of Durango in the northern region as the study area (SA). To determine variations in key environmental drivers, the CanESM5 model was used for the near future, considering two radiative forcing scenarios: 2.6 and 8.5 Wm−2. Interviews were conducted using a random stratification design, ranging from general to specific focus, to assess farmers' adaptation strategies. The findings revealed that the mean rainfall and temperature at the SA could increase by 13.4–13.7