Non-bonded Force Field Parameters from MBIS Partitioning of the Molecular Electron Density Improve Binding Affinity Predictions of the T4-lysozyme Double Mutant

The use of computer simulation for binding affinity prediction is growing in drug discovery. However, its wider use is constrained by the accuracy of the free energy calculations. The key sources of error are the force fields used to depict molecular interactions and insufficient sampling of the configurational space. To improve the quality of the force field, we developed a Python-based computational workflow. The workflow described here uses the minimal basis iterative stockholder (MBIS) method to determine atomic charges and Lennard-Jones parameters from the polarized molecular density. This is done by performing electronic structure calculations on various configurations of the ligand when it is both bound and unbound. In addition, we validated a simulation procedure that accounts for the protein and ligand degrees of freedom to precisely calculate binding free energies. This was achieved by comparing the self-adjusted mixture sampling and nonequilibrium thermodynamic integration methods using various protein and ligand conformations. The accuracy of predicting binding affinity is improved by using MBIS-derived force field parameters and a validated simulation procedure. This improvement surpasses the chemical precision for the eight aromatic ligands, reaching a root-mean-square error of 0.7 kcal/mol.