A Novel Machine Learning Approach to Predict Textbook Outcome in Colectomy

BACKGROUND: Several calculators exist to predict risk of postoperative complications. However, in low-risk procedures such as colectomy, a tool to determine the probability of achieving the ideal outcome could better aid clinical decision-making, especially for high-risk patients. A textbook outcome is a composite measure that serves as a surrogate for the ideal surgical outcome. OBJECTIVE: To identify the most important factors for predicting textbook outcomes in patients with nonmetastatic colon cancer undergoing colectomy and to create a textbook outcome decision support tool using machine learning algorithms. DESIGN: This was a retrospective analysis study. SETTINGS: Data were collected from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. PATIENTS: Adult patients undergoing elective colectomy for nonmetastatic colon cancer (2014-2020) were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Textbook outcome was the main outcome, defined as no mortality, no 30-day readmission, no postoperative complications, no 30-day reinterventions, and a hospital length of stay of <= 5 days. Four models (logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) were trained and validated. Ultimately, a web-based calculator was developed as proof of concept for clinical application.RESULTS: A total of 20,498 patients who underwent colectomy for nonmetastatic colon cancer were included. Overall, textbook outcome was achieved in 66% of patients. Textbook outcome was more frequently achieved after robotic colectomy (77%), followed by laparoscopic colectomy (68%) and open colectomy (39%, p < 0.001). eXtreme Gradient Boosting was the best performing model (area under the curve = 0.72). The top 5 preoperative variables to predict textbook outcome were surgical approach, patient age, preoperative hematocrit, preoperative oral antibiotic bowel preparation, and patient sex. LIMITATIONS: This study was limited by its retrospective nature of the analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Using textbook outcome as the preferred outcome may be a useful tool in relatively low-risk procedures such as colectomy, and the proposed web-based calculator may aid surgeons in preoperative evaluation and counseling, especially for high-risk patients.