Social Expenditure Composition and Inequality: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis for OECD Countries

This paper studies the relationship between inequality and public social spending for an overall sample of 28 OECD countries spanning 1997 to 2017. We add to the literature by dissecting social expenditure according to nine programs and allowing for the existence of a non-linear relation in the context of a dynamic panel threshold model. The analysis reveals a positive contribution of old-age pensions to the Gini index of disposable income distribution, the most often used indicator of inequality, supporting the need to rethink old-age pension systems in this group of countries. The results for the other social expenditure components vary with the inequality measure used and country groups under analysis, highlighting the problems that may be associated with panel data even when a set of countries with many characteristics in common is used. Our results also stress the relevance of accommodating nonlinearities when explaining inequality, paving the way to a better understanding of its behaviour.