On the brink of explosion? Identifying the source and potential spread of introduced Zosterops white-eyes in North America

Understanding the source of non-native introduced populations is crucial for forecasting geographic invasion potential and understanding the ecological consequences of potential establishment. Here we use genomics to identify the source populations and invasion dynamics of two non-native introduced populations from the iconic avian lineage of ‘great speciators’ known as white-eyes (genus Zosterops). We established confidently for the first time that introduced Zosterops populations in Hawaii and southern California are completely unrelated and derived from independent introductions of the species Z. japonicus and Z. simplex, respectively. We used descriptive population genetic statistics to identify a reduction in genetic diversity and increase in private alleles in the southern California population supporting a recent, potentially ongoing, genetic bottleneck in this population. In contrast, the introduced population in Hawaii showed no such characteristics, likely due to a larger founding population size and repeated introductions in this intentionally introduced population. Ecological niche modeling indicated that there is little environmentally suitable habitat for Z. simplex across the continent of North America, suggesting limited invasion potential, assuming niche conservatism. Yet, portions of the introduced Z. simplex population have already surpassed areas projected as suitable, likely because the urbanized environment of southern California offers biotic resources and microhabitats not captured by our model. Because Z. simplex appears to have overcome both the ‘invasion paradox’ of low founding genetic diversity and relatively unfamiliar environmental conditions in southern California, we suggest that this population may continue expanding beyond our environmental niche model projections in other temperate, urban regions.