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    • Bellwethers of Change: Population Modelling of North Pacific Humpback Whales from 2002 Through 2021 Reveals Shift from Recovery to Climate Response

    Ted Cheeseman,Jay Barlow， Denny Zwiefelhofer,Phil Clapham

    ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE（2024）

    Southern Cross Univ | Oregon State Univ | BALYENA ORG | Whales Guerrero | Univ Hawaii Manoa | Marine Educ & Res Soc | Univ Guadalajara | NOAA Fisheries | Pacific Wildlife Fdn Canada | Cascadia Res Collect | Keiki Kohola Project | Univ Alaska Southeast | Pacific Whale Fdn | Assoc ELI S | Pacific Biol Stn | Ocean Wise | Univ Southern Denmark | Hawaiian Isl Humpback Whale Natl Marine Sanctuary | Ecol & Conservac Ballenas AC | Hawaii Marine Mammal Consortium | Eye Whale Marine Mammal Res | VE Enterprises | Univ Autonoma Baja Calif | Whale Trust | Okinawa Churashima Fdn | Ctr Whale Res | FGBU Gosudarstvennyj Zapovednik Komandorskij | Univ Autonoma Baja Calif Sur | Alaska Fisheries Sci Ctr | North Gulf Ocean Soc | Glacier Bay Natl Pk & Preserve | Happywhale | Univ Colima | Univ Hawaii | Emmanuel Coll | Murdoch Univ | Univ Calif Davis | Humpback Whales Salish Sea | Int Whaling Commiss | Alaska Whale Fdn | Juneau Flukes | Russian Acad Sci | Winged Whale Res | Univ Alaska Fairbanks | North Coast Cetacean Soc | Seastar Sci

    Cited 2|Views33
    Abstract
    For the 40 years after the end of commercial whaling in 1976, humpback whale populations in the North Pacific Ocean exhibited a prolonged period of recovery. Using mark–recapture methods on the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean, we estimated annual ocean-basin-wide abundance for the species from 2002 through 2021. Trends in annual estimates describe strong post-whaling era population recovery from 16 875 (± 5955) in 2002 to a peak abundance estimate of 33 488 (± 4455) in 2012. An apparent 20% decline from 2012 to 2021, 33 488 (± 4455) to 26 662 (± 4192), suggests the population abruptly reached carrying capacity due to loss of prey resources. This was particularly evident for humpback whales wintering in Hawai‘i, where, by 2021, estimated abundance had declined by 34% from a peak in 2013, down to abundance levels previously seen in 2006, and contrasted to an absence of decline in Mainland Mexico breeding humpbacks. The strongest marine heatwave recorded globally to date during the 2014–2016 period appeared to have altered the course of species recovery, with enduring effects. Extending this time series will allow humpback whales to serve as an indicator species for the ecosystem in the face of a changing climate.
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    Key words
    carrying capacity,marine heatwave,mark-recapture modelling,abundance estimation,climate change,environmental variables
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    【要点】：通过40年的数据追踪，论文发现北太平洋座头鲸种群从恢复期转为对气候变化的响应，表明其数量受气候变化影响显著。
    

    【方法】：论文使用标记-重捕方法，对史上最大的座头鲸个体照片识别数据集进行分析，估算2002至2021年间的年度种群数量。
    

    【实验】：作者在北太平洋范围内对座头鲸进行追踪，使用的数据集为最大的个体照片识别数据集，结果显示从2002年的16875（±5955）增长至2012年的33488（±4455），但在2012年至2021年间下降至26662（±4192），表明种群可能已达到环境承载力上限。特别是在夏威夷越冬的座头鲸种群，2021年比2013年峰值下降了34%，而墨西哥大陆的种群数量未出现下降。2014-2016年期间记录的最强海洋热浪似乎改变了物种的恢复轨迹，并产生了持久影响。