Future Climate Change Impacts on Child Health: an Assessment of Preterm-Births, Diarrheal Cases and Heat-Related Mortality for 20 African Cities

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Climate risks are known to affect child health. We quantified the impact of climate scenarios on annual heat-related child deaths, child diarrheal disease cases, and preterm births in 20 of the fastest growing cities in Africa. METHOD: We estimated the impact of the current (2020) and future (2050) high temperatures on three outcomes for child health under 5s (all-cause mortality, diarrhoeal disease incidence, and preterm birth) in 20 African cities, using linear threshold models. From 32 CMIP6 climate models, the data were extracted for each city and three emission scenarios (SSP119, SSP245, SP585). Exposure-response functions were taken from published meta-analyses. We used daily mean temperature for each day between 2020 and 2050. The SSP2 (middle-of-the-road) population projection was used for future populations and the global burden of disease (GBD) national projections (GBD study 2019) in mortality, diarrheal disease and preterm birth accounted for future health improvement. RESULTS: A significant increase in annual heat-related under-5 mortality over the next 30 years was observed in all scenarios (up to 61% under ssp245, and up to 102% under ssp585) in 2050 compared to 2020, except under SSP119. Heat related deaths were avoided by going from high to low emissions scenarios. Population growth was the largest contributor to changes in heat related mortality compared to changes in climate and all-cause mortality rate. While diarrhoea cases decline in all cities (because of projected improvements in treatment and prevention), preterm birth cases increased between 2-92% under SSP119, 2-200% under 245, and 10-275% under SSP585 by 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that climate change is likely to have a significant impact on child health. Our findings support the need for urgent mitigation and adaptation measures that are focussed on protecting the health of children.