CT features based preoperative predictors of aggressive pathology for clinical T1 solid renal cell carcinoma and the development of nomogram model

Background We aimed to identify preoperative predictors of aggressive pathology for cT1 solid renal cell carcinoma (RCC) by combining clinical features with qualitative and quantitative CT parameters, and developed a nomogram model. Methods We conducted a retrospective study of 776 cT1 solid RCC patients treated with partial nephrectomy (PN) or radical nephrectomy (RN) between 2018 and 2022. All patients underwent four-phase contrast-enhanced CT scans and the CT parameters were obtained by two experienced radiologists using region of interest (ROI). Aggressive pathology was defined as patients with nuclear grade III-IV; upstage to pT3a; type II papillary renal cell carcinoma (pRCC), collecting duct or renal medullary carcinoma, unclassified RCC or sarcomatoid/rhabdoid features. Univariate and multivariate logistic analyses were used to determine significant predictors and develop the nomogram model. To evaluate the accuracy and clinical utility of the nomogram model, we used the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot, decision curve analysis (DCA), risk stratification, and subgroup analysis. Results Of the 776 cT1 solid RCC patients, 250 (32.2%) had aggressive pathological features. The interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of CT parameters accessed by two reviewers ranged from 0.758 to 0.982. Logistic regression analyses showed that neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), distance to the collecting system, CT necrosis, tumor margin irregularity, peritumoral neovascularity, and RER-NP were independent predictive factors associated with aggressive pathology. We built the nomogram model using these significant variables, which had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.854 in the ROC curve. Conclusions Our research demonstrated that preoperative four-phase contrast-enhanced CT was critical for predicting aggressive pathology in cT1 solid RCC, and the constructed nomogram was useful in guiding patient treatment and postoperative follow-up.