China’s Cross-Regional Carbon Emission Spillover Effects of Urbanization and Industrial Shifting

With rapid urbanization and industrial shifting in China, demographic and industrial relocation leads to cross-regional carbon emission spillovers, which are playing an increasingly important role in regional carbon transfer and growth. However, how urbanization and industrial shifting influence carbon spillover still needs to be clarified. In this study, we use multi-regional input-output (MRIO) and scenario analyses to investigate the carbon spillover effects of urbanization, industrial shifting, and their synergy effect on provincial and sectoral carbon emissions in China during 2012–2017. The results showed that urbanization in China has further increased carbon spillover in the provinces that already have a high spillover. Industrial shifting, as represented by cross-regional trade between sectors, drove changes in cross-regional carbon spillovers during 2012–2017, and significantly increased the spillover from Henan, Guangdong, and Hebei by 57.7, 29.9, and 23.6 Mt, respectively. By contrast, the synergy effect of urbanization and industrial shifting on carbon spillover was smaller than their separate effects, with Shandong being the highest increase about 0.61 Mt. Furthermore, at the sectoral level, the production and distribution of electricity and heat-power (PEH), smelting and processing of metals (SPM), and mining and washing of coal (MWC) sectors transmitted the largest carbon emission spillover effects in all regions. Based on these findings, more fine-grained policy suggestions for assigning responsibility for carbon reductions and mitigation measures at the regional and sectoral levels in the context of urbanization and industrial shifting.