Making Sense of Health Estimates

Epidemiological data provide the metrics from which burdens attributable to different diseases and conditions causing ill health can be estimated. Comprehensive, consistent, and coherent health estimates, together with information about any associated uncertainties, are indispensable for decision making by governments, non-governmental organisations, practitioners, and national and international funders in helping to gauge and track the changing demands and challenges presented by poor health. Estimates of disease burden are an essential platform for public health policy and priority setting, and for evaluating intervention programmes. Additionally, information about the effectiveness of interventions, their societal acceptability, side-effects, cost-effectiveness, and ultimate cost, are needed for the policy setting process. Here, we argue that in the absence of adequate primary health data collection, it is often reasonable to rely on best estimates of disease burden, derived from other sources and modelling, for national planning and other decision making purposes.