Risk Probability Assessment Method of Distribution Network with Integration of High-Proportion of Distributed Photovoltaic via Monte Carlo Simulation

To accurately evaluate the impact of integration of high proportion distributed photovoltaic on distribution network, a risk probability assessment method of distribution network is proposed via Monte Carlo simulation. Firstly, distributed photovoltaic output data from a county is processed to remove irrelevant information, and representative typical scenarios are generated by k-means clustering via Beta distribution. Then, representative probability models are selected for conducting Monte Carlo simulation. Afterwards, the probabilistic power flow is calculated. Voltage limit risk index, voltage deviation index and network loss index are established to achieve probabilistic assessment of high proportion distributed photovoltaic integration in distribution networks. Finally, multi-scenario and multi-time period comparative analysis is conducted on an improved IEEE33 node system. As the proportion of distributed photovoltaic integration increases, the risk of voltage violations and high network losses during evening hours increases sharply. Overall, the period of highest operational risk remains noon.