Cropland and Population Exposure to Extreme Precipitation Events in Central Asia Under Future Climate Change

Central Asia (CA) is experiencing rapid warming, leading to more Extreme precipitation events (EPEs). However, the anticipated changes in cropland and population exposure to EPEs are still unexplored. In this study, projected changes in EPEs characteristics, as well as cropland and population exposure from EPEs are quantified using global climate model simulations. Our findings reveal a significant increase in the exposure of cropland and population to extreme precipitation over time. Specifically, under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 future pathway, the amount, frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of extreme precipitation in CA are projected to considerably amplify, particularly in the high mountain regions. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, cropland exposure in CA increases by 46.4%, with a total cropland exposure of approximately 190.7 million km² expected between 2021 and 2100. Additionally, under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, population exposure in CA increases by 92.6%, resulting in a total population exposure of about 48.1 billion person-days during the same period. The future maximum centers of exposure are concentrated over northern Kazakhstan and the tri-border region of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Notably, the climate effect is more dominant than the other effects, whereas changes in population effect contribute to the total change in population exposure. Given the heterogeneous distribution of population and cropland in CA, it is imperative for the countries in the region to implement effective measures that harness extreme precipitation and cope with the impacts of these extreme climate events.