Impact of using novel antitumor drugs in adult patients with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma on reducing cancer mortality in Russia

Background. Standard first-line therapy options for patients with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC) is platinum-based chemotherapy. Currently, patients also have access to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) such as pembrolizumab, nivolumab, and atezolizumab, along with avelumab, which, unlike other drugs in this class, can be used as maintenance therapy after first-line platinum-based chemotherapy. Aim. To evaluate the effects of using ICIs in treating adult patients with locally advanced or metastatic UC on reducing overall and one-year cancer mortality in Russia. Materials and methods. A mathematical model based on overall survival and progression-free survival data from clinical trials has been proposed. This model describes duration of therapy and treatment outcomes for cases of treatment without ICIs (routine clinical practice); with pembrolizumab, nivolumab, and atezolizumab in first and second-line therapy according to real-life clinical practice (current practice); and with avelumab as maintenance therapy after platinum-based chemotherapy (proposed practice) over a 3-year period. The model was used to estimate the number of lives saved and healthcare system costs when transitioning from historical to current practice, and from current to proposed practice over a three-year horizon, considering the number of locally advanced or metastatic UC patients who may start platinum-based therapy annually in Russia. Results. Annually, up to 4,182 patients with locally advanced or metastatic UC in Russia can start platinum-based chemotherapy. Compared to historical practice, the use of pembrolizumab, nivolumab, and atezolizumab in the first and second lines of therapy in accordance with the routine clinical practice allows to reduce mortality from malignant neoplasms by 553 cases over a 3-year horizon. Over the same period, avelumab-based treatment would additionally save 2,506 lives. Moreover, the cost of saving one life with the use of avelumab amounts to 6.0 million rubles, which is 9 % lower than the cost of saving one life with the use of other ICIs (6.6 million rubles). Conclusion. The use of avelumab as maintenance therapy after platinum-based chemotherapy in the 1st line in patients with locally advanced or metastatic UC has a significant and quantifiable impact on reducing cancer-related mortality in Russia.