Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling and Dose Projection under High Uncertainty Conditions

Abstract Understanding the overall magnitude of the deviations that may occur within the results of one or more codes allows avoiding discrepancies in decision making in the context of emergency preparedness and response. The uncertainty of the assessment input data plays a significant role in this. Currently, emergency centers around the world use a number of atmospheric dispersion modelling and dose projection tools that have the same functionality, are used for the same purpose, but may produce different results. This article reveals the problem of uncertainty in the results of atmospheric dispersion modelling and dose projection, which are laid down at the stage of input data for actual software products and decision support systems. The paper lists the main factors that can affect the uncertainty of the assessment results. On the example of the JRODOS system, possible options for describing the source for the spectrum of emergency events at NPPs are considered. Special attention is paid to assimilation of radiation monitoring results and response to hostilities.