Risk stratification of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma using change in total lesion glycolysis and number of PET-positive lymph nodes

Background The efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) correlates with patient survival in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), but optimal evaluation of the treatment response based on PET-CT parameters has not been established. Methods We analysed 226 OSCC patients who underwent PET-CT before and after NACT followed by surgery. We assessed SUVmax, metabolic tumour volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) for the primary tumour and the number of PET-positive lymph nodes before and after NACT to predict patient survival. Results In a stepwise analysis, we defined 60%, 80%, and 80% as the optimal cut-off values for SUVmax, MTV, and TLG reduction, respectively, to distinguish responders and non-responders to NACT. In the ROC analysis, the TLG reduction rate was the best predictor of recurrence among PET-CT parameters. The TLG responders achieved significantly more favourable prognoses than non-responders (2-year progression-free survival [PFS] rate: 64.1% vs. 38.5%; P = 0.0001). TLG reduction rate (HR 2.58; 95% CI 1.16–5.73) and the number of PET-positive lymph nodes after NACT (HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.04–3.08) were significant independent prognostic factors. Conclusions TLG reduction is the best predictor of prognosis. Preoperative PET-CT evaluation of both the primary tumour and lymph nodes could accurately stratify risk in OSCC patients.