Sensitivity and Uncertainity Analysis of Flow Velocity Estimation Using Gene Expression Programming Model in Curved Channels

Prediction of velocity is an important parameter in curved channels. Recently, artificial intelligent methods are developing than the common costly and time-consuming experimental and numerical methods in estimation of flow variables. In the present study, Gene expression programming (GEP) model as developed genetic programming model is used to predict the flow velocity in the channel with a sharp 90° bend. Different input parameter combinations are examined in order to finding the optimum model then the model efficiency are evaluated in estimation of the flow velocity in training and testing phases. By comparing the results of the GEP model with experimental data, there is an acceptable accordance between results with the root mean square error (RMSE) values of 0.828 and 0.8197 in the training and testing phase. The results show that the input parameters of (r,q) (polar points coordinate and the flow discharge) are the most effective parameters in bend flow pattern surveying. With increasing the flow discharge, the model error at the end section of the bend in the outer channel wall is decreased. Also a practical and reliable relationship is proposed by the GEP model and the sensitivity of suggested equation to each of input parameter is evaluated. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the proposed GEP model in the velocity prediction is assessed and different confidence bounds are introduced.