Invasions of European Tribes During Severe Cold Winters of the Past Three Millennia

Abstract Times of turmoil in Europe during past millennia have been linked to hydroclimate variability. The invasion of foreign peoples that hastened the collapse of the Roman Empire, for example, was suggested to have been triggered by precipitation minima. However, the climate evolution of central-east Europe, the cradle of these tribes, remains elusive, thus limiting our understanding of how ancient civilizations responded to climate change. In this study, we present a 3000-year-long winter temperature and precipitation record inferred from a stalagmite in central Slovakia with dating uncertainties as small as ±6 yr. The data reveal that this region experienced seven 100-200 year-long cold intervals during the past three millennia. Three of these intervals with wet winters centered at 350 BC, and 400 and 900 AD coincided with historic invasion events in eastern Europe. These cold intervals were likely triggered by a weakened North Atlantic circulation and concomitant atmospheric blockings over western Europe.