Framework for Considering the Interactions Between Climate Change, Socio-Economic Development and Land Use Planning in the Assessment of Future Flood Risk

Flood risk is expected to increase significantly around the globe, fuelled by the nexus between flooding and land use. This is because changes in land use due to socio-economic development increase runoff, as well as the “values-at-stake” exposed to flooding. At the same time, changes in flood extent and depth can impact land use via policy interventions aimed at reducing future flood risk, such as buy-backs and zoning. Existing approaches to flood risk assessment and mitigation have generally ignored this two-way interaction between flooding and land use. To address this shortcoming, an integrated framework considering the dynamics of future changes in the flood-land use nexus is introduced and applied to the Gawler River region, South Australia. Results indicate that changes in land use due to socio-economic drivers can have a significantly greater impact on flood losses than climate change and that zoning can be effective in reducing future flood risk.