Total-factor CO2 Performance in China's Construction Sector: Spatiotemporal Trend, Driver and Future Pathway

China actively participates in global efforts to mitigate CO2 emissions, with a particular emphasis on the crucial role of the construction sector in achieving these objectives. This research endeavor commences by conducting an in-depth analysis of the maximum potential for reducing carbon intensity (CI) within China's construction sector from 2005 to 2019. The assessment is executed through the utilization of a non-radial directional function, with the total-factor CO2 emission performance index (TCPI) serving as the principal metric. Subsequently, this study employs network analysis, an extended decomposition technique, and scenario analysis to comprehensively investigate the evolving network trends, key determinants influencing TCPI, and potential pathways for further CI reduction. The findings of this investigation reveal the following critical insights: 1) The overall trajectory of TCPI exhibits an upward trend, characterized by dynamic shifts in its hierarchical structure over the specified time frame. 2) Several influential factors contribute positively to the observed TCPI increase, including investment-based energy intensity (the largest contributor), the potential carbon factor, technical efficiency in economic development, and carbon productivity. Conversely, the investment-output share exerts a negative influence on TCPI. 3) An alarming prospect emerges as the construction sectors in Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, and Guizhou face potential challenges in achieving the 2030 targets, which aim for a 60%–65% reduction in CI compared to 2005 levels under a business-as-usual scenario. Consequently, a concerted effort to reduce carbon emission factors and energy intensity becomes imperative. This study underscores the critical need for the formulation and implementation of enhanced CI reduction policies within the construction sector, emphasizing the vital role of government intervention in achieving these objectives.