Morbidity Trend and Space-Time Clusters of COVID-19 Occurrence in Children and Adolescents.

Objective: To analyze the morbidity trend and space-time distribution clusters of confirmed COVID-19 cases in children and adolescents. Method: An ecological study of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the Information System from 2020 to 2022 in the age group from 0 to 19 years old, residents in Mato Grosso municipalities, Brazilian Midwest region. A trend analysis of the monthly morbidity rate of cases/100,000 inhabitants was used, following Prais-Winsten's regression. A space-time distribution of the Bayesian incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants was performed, in addition to a space-time scan to identify highrisk clusters. Results: Of all 79,592 COVID-19 cases studied, 51.6% were in females and 44.21% in people aged 15-19 years old. The mean monthly rate was 265.87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with a stationary trend in the period analyzed (Monthly Percentage Variation [MPV]) = 12.15; CI95%[MPV]: -0.73;26.70). The morbidity rate due to COVID-19 was higher in the female gender (283.14/ 100,000 inhabitants) and in the age group from 15 to 19 years old (485.90/100,000 inhabitants). An increasing trend was observed with a greater monthly time variation of 14.42% (CI95%[MPV]: 1.28;29.28)] among those aged from 10 to 14 years old. The primary cluster, which was also the one with the highest Relative Risk (RR = 5,16, p -value = 0.001), included 19 municipalities located in the North health macro -region. Conclusion: The findings indicated a monthly stationary trend in the study population, an increase in the age group from 10 to 14 years old, and areas at a higher risk for the disease in the North health macro -region of the state. (c) 2023 Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. on behalf of Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. This is an open access article under the CC BY -NC -ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-nd/4.0/).