Predicting Ising Model Performance on Quantum Annealers

By analyzing the characteristics of hardware-native Ising Models and their performance on current and next generation quantum annealers, we provide a framework for determining the prospect of advantage utilizing adiabatic evolution compared to classical heuristics like simulated annealing. We conduct Ising Model experiments with coefficients drawn from a variety of different distributions and provide a range for the necessary moments of the distributions that lead to frustration in classical heuristics. By identifying the relationships between the linear and quadratic terms of the models, analysis can be done a priori to determine problem instance suitability on annealers. We then extend these experiments to a prototype of D-Wave's next generation device, showing further performance improvements compared to the current Advantage annealers.