Sclerosis rim-volume ratio and Japanese Investigation Committee classification as predictive factors for femoral head collapse progression after non-vascularized fibular grafting in osteonecrosis patients

Objective: The purpose of this retrospective cohort study was to determine the relationship between sclerosis rim volume ratio (SVR) and the progression of femoral head collapse after non-vascularized fibular grafting (NVFG) surgery in patients with osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH), investigating risk factors associated with femoral head collapse progression and establishing a predictive model to enhance clinical decision-making. Methods: ONFH patients who underwent NVFG between January 2008 and December 2021 were analyzed retrospectively to assess the risk of post-operative collapse progression (collapse >2 mm). A logistic regression model was used to evaluate the independent risk factors associated with collapse progression, including age, sex, etiology, affected side, Japanese Investigation Committee classification (JIC), and the sclerosis rim volume ratio (SVR). SVR values was collected from three weight-bearing columns, namely SVR1, SVR2, and SVR3, respectively. Results: 57 patients with 64 hips who had undergone NVFG and were followed up for at least one year were included. During the follow-up, collapse > 2 mm occurred in 30 hips (46.88%). Multivariable analysis revealed that JIC (p =0.037) and SVR1 (p = 0.04) were independent risk factors for collapse progression after NVFG. The results of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated that the aforementioned indices provided a satisfactory prediction of early femoral head collapse progression in ONFH patients after NVFG. The regression model using the above two indicators as a composite index showed satisfactory performance in predicting early postoperative femoral head collapse progression, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 84.6%. Conclusions: SVR is significant predictor of post-operative collapse progression following NVFG, and the composite index provides an optimal predictive value for femoral head collapse progression after surgery. (c) 2024 Asian Surgical Association and Taiwan Robotic Surgery Association. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).