Predictors of 30-day mortality following the first episode of stroke among patients admitted at referral hospitals in Dodoma, central Tanzania: A prospective longitudinal observational study.

Background and Aims:Stroke is the leading cause of disability and the second most common cause of death after ischemic heart disease worldwide. Understanding predictors of early poststroke mortality provides opportunities for interventions and favorable outcomes. This study aimed to determine the incidence and predictors of 30-day mortality among patients admitted with the first stroke at referral hospitals in Dodoma. Methods:A prospective longitudinal observational design enrolled patients with acute stroke confirmed by CT scan or MRI admitted at referral hospitals in Dodoma. The National Institute of Health Stroke Scale was used to assess stroke severity at baseline. A comparison of risk factors, clinical profiles, and mortality was done using the Chi-square test. A logistic regression model was used to determine the predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with the stroke while the 30-day probability of survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results:Out of 226 patients with first-ever stroke, 121(54%) were males, and the population mean age was 63(15) years. The 140(62%) had Ischemic stroke, and 154(68%) survived at the 30th day. Patients with a history of smoking 2.4 [95% confidence interval (CI) (1.0-5.6), p = 0.048], loss of consciousness 2.7 [95% CI (1.2-6.4; p = 0.019] and unequal pupil size 13.7 [95% CI (4.1-58.1, p < 0.001 were significantly more associated with mortality within 30 days. The median survival was 7 (3-9) days, whereas alcohol drinkers and those aged above 60 years had a shorter time to mortality compared to non-alcohol drinkers and those aged <60 years. Conclusion:The study showed a high incidence of mortality within 30 days after the first stroke episode, with the highest proportion dying within 7 days of being hospitalized. Advanced age of ≥60 years, smoking, alcohol use, and severe stroke at admission warrant special attention.