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Improving Modelling for Epidemic Responses: Reflections from Members of the UK Infectious Disease Modelling Community on Their Experiences During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Katharine Sherratt, Anna C CarnegieYang Liu,Sam Abbott

Wellcome open research(2024)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease | MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis | All Hazards Intelligence | Emergency Response Department Science & Technology Behavioural Science | Warwick Mathematics Institute and The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research | Institute for Global Health | European Molecular Biology Laboratory | Big Data Institute

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Abstract
Background:The COVID-19 pandemic both relied and placed significant burdens on the experts involved from research and public health sectors. The sustained high pressure of a pandemic on responders, such as healthcare workers, can lead to lasting psychological impacts including acute stress disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, burnout, and moral injury, which can impact individual wellbeing and productivity. Methods:As members of the infectious disease modelling community, we convened a reflective workshop to understand the professional and personal impacts of response work on our community and to propose recommendations for future epidemic responses. The attendees represented a range of career stages, institutions, and disciplines. This piece was collectively produced by those present at the session based on our collective experiences. Results:Key issues we identified at the workshop were lack of institutional support, insecure contracts, unequal credit and recognition, and mental health impacts. Our recommendations include rewarding impactful work, fostering academia-public health collaboration, decreasing dependence on key individuals by developing teams, increasing transparency in decision-making, and implementing sustainable work practices. Conclusions:Despite limitations in representation, this workshop provided valuable insights into the UK COVID-19 modelling experience and guidance for future public health crises. Recognising and addressing the issues highlighted is crucial, in our view, for ensuring the effectiveness of epidemic response work in the future.
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Epidemiology,Modeling,Social Distancing
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要点】:本文探讨了英国传染病模型专家在COVID-19大流行期间的经历,提出了改进未来疫情响应模型构建的建议。

方法】:作者通过组织反思性研讨会,汇集了不同阶段、机构和学科的传染病模型专家,基于集体经验产出研究成果。

实验】:研讨会识别了主要问题,包括缺乏机构支持、合同不稳定、认可和信誉不平等以及心理健康影响,并据此提出了具体建议,但未提及具体数据集名称。