Abstract 33: Risk Scores And Brain Mri Markers In Distinguishing Ischemic Stroke And Intracerebral Hemorrhage Risk Among Atrial Fibrillation Patients: The Neuro-Afib Study

Background: Recent studies cast doubt on the accuracy of the most-commonly used risk scores (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASC and HAS-BLED) in differentiating the risk of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) among patients with fibrillation (AF). Because of the importance of AIS/ICH risk determination for choice of proper preventive approaches, we aimed to compare the value of these risk scores and brain MRI markers to differentiate the occurrence of AIS and ICH in a large cohort of AF-related strokes. Methods: The Neuro-AFib study is a multicenter effort to elucidate the causes and consequences of AIS and ICH in AF patients. Demographics, CHA 2 DS 2 -VASC and HAS-BLED scores, and ischemic/hemorrhagic brain MRI markers were compared between AF patients admitted with AIS and ICH to 15 academic stroke centers in the US between 1/2018-12/2019. Results: Of 5694 stroke admissions with AF, 4826 (84.8%) had AIS and 868 (15.2%) ICH. Mean age was similar between groups (75.9±11.5 vs 76.6±11.9, p=0.1), more ICH patients were male (57% vs 50%). Pre-index event CHA 2 DS 2 -VASC (4.14±1.6 vs 4.22±1.6) and HAS-BLED (2.71±1.09 vs 2.68±1.13) were similar between groups [both p>0.2]. Cerebral microbleeds (CMB, 56% vs 33.5%), cortical superficial siderosis (cSS, 15% vs 9.4%), and moderate-to-severe leukoaraiosis (41% vs 33.4%) were more commonly found among ICH patients compared to AIS (all p<0.001). Chronic lacunar infarcts (43.5% vs 39.5%, p=0.03) and chronic non-lacunar infarcts (29% vs 18%, p<0.001) were more commonly found in AIS. In a multivariable logistic regression model that included all variables above, male sex, presence of CMBs, cSS, moderate-to-severe leukoaraiosis were associated with ICH, chronic non-lacunar infarcts with AIS (all p<0.005), while CHA 2 DS 2 -VASC (p=0.9) and HAS-BLED (p=0.9) were not related to the stroke type. Conclusions: Data from our multicenter study confirm the lack of specificity of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASC and HAS-BLED to categorize the risk of AIS vs ICH in AF patients. The chronic MRI findings (CMB, cSS, moderate-to-severe leukoaraiosis, chronic infarcts) should be incorporated into risk scores, and their predictive value for AIS and ICH should be investigated in prospective studies to select optimal stroke prevention methods in AF patients.