Estimating vital rate variation to assess early success of scrub mint translocations

Species translocations are increasingly common in rare plant conservation. Wild populations can provide basic ecological knowledge to improve their chance of success. In the heavily fragmented Florida scrub, USA, many listed species require translocations to persist, including Dicerandra christmanii. In 1994, we began monitoring the only protected population of D. christmanii growing both in gaps (open areas) within the shrub matrix and on roadsides. In 2010, we augmented this population by adding plants and seeds to unoccupied gaps. In 2012, we introduced plants to a separate protected site to create a new population. We evaluated early translocation success using generalized linear mixed-effect models of vital rate variation among habitat types. Survival probability increased with size, peaking at 0.6-0.8, and was lowest in augmentations and highest in introductions. Growth increased with plant size across all habitat types, except for the largest adults which experienced senescence. Naturally recruited plants in gaps showed the highest reproduction probability and fecundity at smaller sizes, but larger plants in translocations had the highest fecundity. Yearling recruitment was higher in translocated plants relative to naturally recruited plants in gaps during the initial years following outplanting. Experimental components of translocations also affected outplanting performance with positive effects of fire. These analyses suggest a high potential for translocations to become established and contribute to species recovery.