The Landlord-Tenant Dilemma: Distributional Effects of Carbon Prices, Redistribution and Building Modernisation Policies in the German Heating Transition

A carbon price on heating fuels aims to reduce the use of fossil energy in the heating sector. However, it has a greater effect on tenants than on landlords. The heating transition requires adequate building insulation for efficient use of low-temperature technologies. To encourage this particular kind of investment, German landlords are given the option to apply a modernisation levy of up to 8% on top of rents. Similar to carbon pricing, rent increases cause distributional effects. The net effect of these measures on tenants has not been analysed so far. Using a micro-simulation integrating representative empirical data on tenant households in Germany from KOSMA and the detailed building database TABULA, we analyse direct distributional effects of a carbon price (euro55/t and euro250/t), a per-capita redistribution of carbon price revenues and the modernisation levy (8% and 2% rent increases). The analysis shows that carbon prices and modernisation levies have strong regressive effects. These can be mitigated by the per-capita redistribution. However, the effect on tenants within a given income decile varies largely due to the diversity of buildings. Thus, when designing and evaluating policies, looking at average effects is not sufficient to assess economic impacts for individual households.