Interseismic Coupling, Asperity Distribution, and Earthquake Potential on Major Faults in Southeastern Tibet

Southeastern (SE) Tibet is one of the most seismically active regions in mainland China, but the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling that quantifies seismic hazard is unknown along most major faults. In this study, we constructed an elastic block model to invert Global Positioning System data for slip rates and locking coefficients along 20 major faults in SE Tibet. Our results identify 27 strongly coupled fault segments with locking coefficients >0.5, defined as potential seismogenic asperities, extending laterally for 36-330 km. Quantitative calculations of seismic moment budgets on these seismogenic asperities indicate that they are capable of generating Mw 6.4-7.7 earthquakes in the next few decades, of which the Anninghe, Daliangshan and Red River faults have the potential for Mw >= 7.5 earthquakes. The interseismic coupling model provides a component for probabilistic analysis of future seismic hazards in densely populated Southwest China.