Climate Change Influence on Buildings Dynamic Thermal Behavior During Summer Overheating Periods: an In-Depth Sensitivity Analysis

Climate change is increasing heatwaves occurrence, which consequently impact buildings indoor overheating during summers. While indoor overheating in free-running buildings during future typical summers has been quantified by many researchers, its intensification during future heatwaves remains relatively under-researched. Furthermore, analyzing the dynamic thermal response of free-running buildings to these varying local climate changes is current lacking. This paper objective and novelty is to understand the building dynamic thermal change during different indoor overheating periods induced by several hot outdoor sequences during present and future climates. Two sensitivity analysis methods are used for this analysis, applied to a free-running top floor apartment of a collective building: the Morris method, which allows to quickly select the most influential parameters and the Sobol method, which allows to conduct an in-depth temporal uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Results show that in the semi-oceanic climate of the French capital Paris, while the indoor overheating is projected to drastically increase, the building dynamic thermal behavior is greatly modified amongst the three climate sequences under study: present and future typical summers, and future heatwave of the mid-century. During the future heatwave in Paris, the building response is projected to behave more similarly as it would in a French Mediterranean city. Static design parameters such as thermal mass, albedo and emissivity or glazing percentage, as well as dynamic design parameters such as the operation of the ventilative cooling and solar control strategies all play an important role in regulating the building indoor overheating, with a different ranking depending on the outdoor local climate conditions. These results are of foremost importance to provide guidance in the design of adapted buildings to climate change, which can withstand future extreme heat periods.