Nowcasting and forecasting provincial-level SARS-CoV-2 case positivity using google search data in South Africa

Data from non-traditional data sources, such as social media, search engines, and remote sensing, have previously demonstrated utility for disease surveillance. Few studies, however, have focused on countries in Africa, particularly during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In this study, we use searches of COVID-19 symptoms, questions, and at-home remedies submitted to Google to model COVID-19 in South Africa, and assess how well the Google search data forecast short-term COVID-19 trends. Our findings suggest that information seeking trends on COVID-19 could guide models for anticipating COVID-19 trends and coordinating appropriate response measures. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement K.T.L.S. and B.E.N. were funded for this work by United States Agency for International Development (USAID) through the following cooperative agreement: AID‐OAA‐A‐15‐00070. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: All data was publicly available; thus, IRB approval was unneeded. All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes National Institute for Communicable Diseases COVID-19 testing and case data in South Africa are publicly available (link: ). South Africa Google Trend data is available openly (link: ).